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class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYr9PS5kpibiaZuPpU6SicIgaod85dpfWeC0eZnwdt2WKYPg54kZGMq5gdg\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=3\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u518d\u770b\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u963f\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee(Alvin Hansen)\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u66fe\u534f\u52a9\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u4e8e1938\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u5b8c\u5168\u590d\u82cf\u6216\u505c\u6ede\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u76f8\u5f53\u8be6\u5b9e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u505c\u6ede\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u8a00\u6218\u540e\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u8fd130\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u7f8e\u666f\u4e4b\u957f\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u4e0a\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1980\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e8610%\u30021981\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u9884\u6d4b\u624b\u518c\u300b\u5305\u542b14\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5747\u5224\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u4e13\u5bb6\u751a\u81f3\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0a\u5347\u6001\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f32030\u5e74\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u624b\u518c\u51fa\u7248\u4e24\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u5c31\u964d\u52303.8%\uff0c\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u57285%\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f4\u52302020\u5e74\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e2a\u522b\u5e74\u4efd\u4f8b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYxZuF9kAbTHK0kuCTkZiajGgPKBmajeqVORtKg6SIrKQYTBvENRlCWWQ\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=4\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u683c\u5c40\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa50\u300160\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u8fdc\u5feb\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u82cf\u8054\u5c06\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee(Paul Samuelson)\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\u662f\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\u6700\u4e3a\u7545\u9500\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u3002\u4ed6\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u4fee\u8ba2\u7684\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5927\u81f4\u57281984\u5e74\u81f31997\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u57281980\u5e74\u7248\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u96be\u4ee5\u5728\u9884\u671f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u8fbe\u6210\uff0c\u4ed6\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c06\u8d85\u8d8a\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u8fdf\u81f32002\u5e74\u81f32012\u5e74\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u4e66\u51fa\u7248\u51e0\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\u4e86\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e4b\u540e\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\u5220\u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u81f390\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u81f3\u5c11\u670935\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u672c\u5c06\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002\u6709\u89c2\u70b9\u751a\u81f3\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c21\u4e16\u7eaa\u5c06\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6216\u5c06\u6ca6\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u536b\u661f\u56fd\u3002\u7279\u522b\u8981\u63d0\u5230\u91cc\u6839\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u653f\u5e9c\u5546\u52a1\u987e\u95ee\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u840a\u5fb7\u00b7\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u6258\u7ef4\u8328(Clyde Prestowitz)\u3002\u4ed6\u4e8e1988\u5e74\u5199\u8fc7\u300a\u65e5\u672c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5230\u6765\u300b\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u901a\u7bc7\u672a\u63d0\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u300220\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u6447\u8eab\u4e00\u53d8\uff0c\u53c8\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u65f6\u4ee3\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9f13\u5439\u8005\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u65e0\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYZ75ibxjGPLibodWVlib2zuSicUCFicTJITlrIEFb3VicrmDOsLt29x7kE9Ug\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=wxpic&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=5\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5173\u4e8e\u6539\u9769\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u51fa\u9519\u30021981\u5e74\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u592b\u4eba\u6267\u653f\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6709364\u4f4d\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u6b63\u5f0f\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u544a\u8beb\u6c11\u4f17\u5207\u52ff\u63a5\u53d7\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u592b\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u592b\u4eba\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u4f7f\u82f1\u56fd\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2023\u5e74\u5e95\u54c8\u7ef4\u5c14\u00b7\u7c73\u83b1\u4e0a\u4efb\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u603b\u7edf\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6709\u6570\u5341\u4f4d\u9876\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8054\u540d\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u516c\u5f00\u4fe1\uff0c\u8b66\u544a\u7c73\u83b1\u5728\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u6c11\u4f17\u9020\u6210\u4f24\u5bb3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u5c31\u76ee\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7c73\u83b1\u7684\u6539\u9769\u4e3e\u63aa\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u9020\u5947\u8ff9\u201d\uff1a123\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e86\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5e74\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u4e5f\u4ece2023\u5e74\u7684211.4%\u9aa4\u964d\u81f32025\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u768443.5%\u3002\u5c24\u4e3a\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u81ea\u7c73\u83b1\u4e0a\u4efb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5df2\u6709170\u4e07\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u513f\u7ae5\u6210\u529f\u6446\u8131\u8d2b\u56f0\u3002\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u8fbe8%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYkfR42icgWCVkwvChLS3I4d7rxVWIE2KtRyAhuI8JtFIVVAjFusPPx0w\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=wxpic&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=6\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>1977\u5e74\uff0c800\u4f4d\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5168\u7403\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u683c\u5c40\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e8625\u5e74\u540e\u76842002\u5e74\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd8\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u8d85\u8fc725%\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b2002\u5e74\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4f1a\u4e0e1977\u5e74\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u53e6\u670945%\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u5176\u6570\u91cf\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u76841977\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u91cf\u4e3a15\u81f320\u4e2a\uff0c\u800c\u52302002\u5e74\u4ec5\u5269\u4e0b5\u4e2a\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20\u4e16\u7eaa\u6700\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\u6c64\u56e0\u6bd4(Arnold Toynbee)\u64b0\u5199\u4e8612\u5377\u672c\u7684\u5de8\u8457\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u3002\u57281962\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u6709\u5173\u4eba\u53e3\u7206\u70b8\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\u523020\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u6210\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u53d7\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u63a7\u5236\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4e0e\u5206\u914d\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u5e9c\u884c\u653f\u673a\u6784\u201d\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u65e9\u57281952\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u5bf92002\u5e74\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5ba3\u79f0\u201c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u6297\u62d2\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e00\u7fa4\u4f53\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u5c06\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7edf\u4e00\u8d77\u6765\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7edf\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u30021966\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u601d\u7d22\u7f8e\u4fc4\u8054\u76df\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u65f6\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51b7\u6218\u5bf9\u624b\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u505a\u5230\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5fc5\u5c06\u6e6e\u706d\u3002 1970\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u52302000\u5e74\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b8b\u66b4\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u5b9e\u73b0\u56e2\u7ed3\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u7684\u30021985\u5e74\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u63d0\u7279\u7f57\u514b(Philip Tetlock)\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u62db\u52df\u4e86284\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d1\u8868\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e14\u91c7\u7528\u533f\u540d\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u8fd120\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u5411\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5404\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f5c\u7b54\uff0c\u603b\u5171\u6536\u5230\u4e8627,450\u4e2a\u6709\u5173\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f18\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ee5\u5fae\u5f31\u4f18\u52bf\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u201c\u9ed1\u7329\u7329\u6295\u98de\u9556\u201d\u7684\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u63d0\u7279\u7f57\u514b\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u5dee\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u95ee\u9898\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u7528\u6a21\u677f\u6765\u523b\u5370\u9884\u6d4b\uff1b\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u4e13\u5bb6\u5219\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u6a21\u677f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u6765\u6e90\u83b7\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u5176\u7efc\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002<strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u5584\u4e8e\u81ea\u6211\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u8d28\u7591\u81ea\u5df1\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u72af\u9519\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u627f\u8ba4\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u4e50\u4e8e\u5c06\u4e16\u754c\u89c6\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6545\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u7565\u80dc\u4e00\u7b79\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYIHTYLHehzEgtkdHibI9kgFSXheEQD34rsESbQd7h7okELy8SRoE80CQ\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=7\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>2012\u5e74\uff0c\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u4e39\u00b7\u52a0\u5fb7\u7eb3(Dan Gardner)\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u672a\u6765\u4e71\u8bed\u300b\uff08Future Babble\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7387\u3002\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u4e5f\u5927\u591a\u662f\u51ed\u501f\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u6070\u4f3c\u4e00\u4e2a\u949f\u8868\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u505c\u6446\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u4e5f\u6709\u4e24\u6b21\u663e\u793a\u6b63\u786e\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\uff0c\u82e5\u949f\u8868\u603b\u662f\u6bd4\u51c6\u786e\u65f6\u95f4\u5feb\u4e94\u5206\u949f\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u4fbf\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u663e\u793a\u6b63\u786e\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u672c\u6587\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53d6\u81ea\u4e39\u00b7\u52a0\u5fb7\u7eb3\u7684\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u8a00\u5bb6\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4f55\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u5bcc\u4e94\u8f66\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u6240\u505a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff1f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u672a\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u6d4b\u4e13\u5bb6\u5374\u5047\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u672a\u6765\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u65e0\u7a77\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u4f17\u591a\u3002\u4f46\u4e13\u5bb6\u4ec5\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u6653\u5168\u90e8\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u3002<\/strong>\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=Mzk0ODEzNTE5MA==&amp;mid=2247503749&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=54ef1dd543fe3e839c0561e6de65a996&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u5f20\u7ef4\u8fce\uff1a\u672a\u6765\u662f\u672a\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u7528\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u6539\u53d8\u4e16\u754c<\/strong><\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYHsjNyuEqnTC7BqXZT2WxzW1549SqyMc2symKG3wiaTeMiawoQSWqcANA\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=8\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u8fd9\u91cc\u60f3\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684(uncertainty)\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u672a\u5b9a\u7684(indeterminacy)\u3002<\/strong>\u901a\u5e38\u8bb2\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u7ed9\u4eba\u4e00\u79cd\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5df2\u7ecf\u7531\u5386\u53f2\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e86\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u9010\u6e10\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u53d7\u7cbe\u5375\u53d8\u6210\u80da\u80ce\u3001\u6700\u540e\u53d8\u6210\u5a74\u513f\u4e00\u6837\uff1b<strong>\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5c31\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7136\u73b0\u8c61\uff08\u5982\u5929\u6c14\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u76f8\u8ddd\u751a\u8fdc\u3002<strong>\u5c31\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7a76\u7adf\u5448\u73b0\u4e3a\u4f55\u79cd\u6a21\u6837\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u66f4\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u5386\u53f2\u6240\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/strong>\u5373\u4fbf\u4f60\u6e05\u6670\u5e76\u575a\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u77e5\u6653\u5e76\u5b8c\u5168\u5e72\u9884\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u9884\u77e5\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0e\u4ed6\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u79ef\u7d2f\u3002\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=Mzk0ODEzNTE5MA==&amp;mid=2247503252&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=033aab46d4e3f5039c1727a8f0c62454&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u5f20\u7ef4\u8fce\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5982\u6b64<\/strong><\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u3002<strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u5076\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3001\u4e00\u4f4d\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3001\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3001\u4e00\u573a\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08\u524d\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\uff09\uff0c\u5747\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u5386\u53f2\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u7269\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8bb2\u7684\u201c\u5931\u4e4b\u6beb\u5398\u5dee\u4e4b\u5343\u91cc\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYKA11cA57XyQ2TlrdaAkE344aCWlLreKKFGiawkgQagpgO4UHEbGlJ3g\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=9\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6545\u800c\u725b\u987f\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u661f\u661f\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u75af\u72c2\u884c\u5f84\u3002\u201d\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u754c\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e13\u5bb6\u5374\u4e0d\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u540c\u725b\u987f\u6240\u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\u7269\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u822c\uff0c\u597d\u4f3c\u5929\u4f53\u8fd0\u884c\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u8fd0\u52a8\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u73b0\u72b6\u504f\u89c1\u201d(status quo bias)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4e8b\u4f8b\u662f\uff0c\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u4e8e1798\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\u4e8e\u98df\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c06\u59cb\u7ec8\u5904\u4e8e\u8d2b\u56f0\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u5f97\u5230\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u7136\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u5174\u8d77\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6210\u529f\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u5982\u4eca\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u9677\u9631\u201d\u3002\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u4e3a\u4f55\u4f1a\u90a3\u6837\u9884\u6d4b\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d44\u6599\u6240\u505a\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6599\u5230\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u5bf9\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e13\u5bb6\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u62e5\u6709\u6781\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5176\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e7f\u5ea6\u6709\u6240\u6b20\u7f3a\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\u9762\u6781\u5bbd\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u4f9d\u7136\u5341\u5206\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a<strong>\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u6700\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u6700\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6700\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYYoyUnD0Oa3OKVwzicSQdIl6SIVjKSWyXG0zPM17h9dPeqHybtbKNnYA\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=10\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e00\u4e0b\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u81ea\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u4fbf\u662f\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u4e0d\u65ad\u6d8c\u73b0\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u9886\u57df\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u77f3\u6cb9\u201c\u50a8\u5907\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u52d8\u63a2\u548c\u5f00\u91c7\u6280\u672f\u3002<strong>\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u65f6\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u9519\u518d\u9519\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u52d8\u63a2\u548c\u5f00\u91c7\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/strong>\u6bd4\u5982\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u5934\u5341\u5e74\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u5230\u9875\u5ca9\u6cb9\u6280\u672f\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\uff08Karl Popper\uff09\u66fe\u8bba\u65ad\uff1a\u5bf9\u53d1\u660e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u751f\u52a8\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\uff08\u8bbe\u60f3\uff09\u5728\u65e7\u77f3\u5668\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u548c\u6211\u8ba8\u8bba\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u9884\u8a0010\u5e74\u5185\u6709\u4eba\u53d1\u660e\u8f6e\u5b50\u3002\u201c\u8f6e\u5b50\uff1f\u201d\u4f60\u95ee,\u201c\u90a3\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u201d\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5411\u4f60\u63cf\u8ff0\u8f6e\u5b50\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u8fd9\u5f88\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u6211\u627e\u8bcd\u6c47\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bf4\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8f6e\u8f8b\u3001\u8f6e\u8f90\u3001\u8f6e\u6bc2\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8fd8\u6709\u8f6e\u8f74\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u505c\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5403\u60ca\u5730\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4f46\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u660e\u8f6e\u5b50\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u3002\u201d\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u8f6e\u5b50\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u8a00\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u8a00\u8fd9\u9879\u53d1\u660e\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u51fa\u8f6e\u5b50\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u800c\u8bf4\u51fa\u8f6e\u5b50\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c31\u662f\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u8f6e\u5b50\u3002\u4e0d\u96be\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u53d1\u660e\u6216\u53d1\u73b0\u90fd\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u8a00\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u672c\u8d28\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u5168\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u8be6\u5c3d\u9610\u8ff0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u8a00\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u9610\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ea\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u73b0\u6216\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u9884\u8a00\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u521b\u65b0&#8212;\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u3002\uff08\u5f15\u81ea\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u62c9\u68ee\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u795e\u8bdd\u300b\u7b2c74\u9875\u3002\uff09<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/strong>1940\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u6676\u4f53\u7ba1\uff1b1950\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u96c6\u6210\u7535\u8def\uff1b1960\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u5149\u7ea4\u901a\u8baf\uff1b1970\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u4e2a\u4eba\u7535\u8111\uff1b1980\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u4e07\u7ef4\u7f51\uff1b1990\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u624b\u673a\u666e\u53ca\uff1b2000\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u79fb\u52a8\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\uff1b2010\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u65b0\u53d1\u660e\u662f\u6781\u4e3a\u56f0\u96be\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYgRnAbjDSPskdic7Umt6hRJjiaTGr2gPbIvic3nL5mLjC1HXoibGZpkZngQ\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=11\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4f55\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ecd\u4e0d\u65ad\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7406\u8bba\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u6709\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u751f\u4ff1\u6765\u538c\u6076\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u638c\u63a7\u611f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u60f3\u638c\u63a7\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4fbf\u60f3\u51fa\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e00\u529e\u6cd5\u3002<strong>\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63a7\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u63d0\u5230\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a<strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u81f4\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u7eb3\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4e8b\u7269\u3002<\/strong>\u6bd4\u5982\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u63a5\u7eb3\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u8005\u627f\u8bfa\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u201d\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f7\u79f0\u80fd\u4f7f\u4e00\u5207\u6309\u65e2\u5b9a\u6b65\u9aa4\u6709\u5e8f\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6709\u540e\u987e\u4e4b\u5fe7\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53d7\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9752\u7750\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYKzWouh9Ce6bZnuC23LTB8bT7HF4XZbZMtYhx8KLic3kQ0pC3K2TlJkQ\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=12\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9003\u72af\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u4f55\u65f6\u80fd\u7761\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b89\u7a33\u89c9\uff1f\u6b63\u662f\u5176\u88ab\u6293\u6355\u5f52\u6848\u7684\u5f53\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\u3002\u7ec8\u4e8e\u5c18\u57c3\u843d\u5b9a\u4e86\uff01\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c<strong>\u4e00\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u574f\u4e8b\u6709\u65f6\u6bd4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u597d\u4e8b\u66f4\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u5185\u5fc3\u5b89\u5b81\u3002<\/strong>\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5468\u56f4\u4e16\u754c\u62e5\u6709\u54ea\u6015\u4e9b\u8bb8\u7684\u638c\u63a7\u529b\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u66f4\u6109\u60a6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e3a\u4f55\u4f1a\u6709\u8ff7\u4fe1\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8457\u540d\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u7f57\u5c3c\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u00b7\u5361\u65af\u73c0\u00b7\u9a6c\u6797\u8bfa\u592b\u65af\u57fa\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8d39\u5b5d\u901a\u5148\u751f\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u60f3\u63a2\u7a76\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u6c42\u795e\u7b97\u5366\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6c42\u52a9\u4e8e\u795e\u7075\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u4eba\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b97\u547d\u5148\u751f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e13\u5bb6\u5177\u5907\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e14\u8f83\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c<strong>\u5c31\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e0e\u7b97\u547d\u5148\u751f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5b9e\u5219\u5e76\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYmiaLibrvkROLZJ4MfLz6oKSN9km8IRnWzUsKIuw1yVOCqQjXZ2yBAEKw\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=13\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3002<\/strong>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5f70\u663e\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u9ad8\u660e\u3002<strong>\u81ea\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6108\u53d1\u76f8\u4fe1\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u6027\u3002<\/strong>\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u505a\u51fa\u5927\u80c6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u4fe1\u8a93\u65e6\u65e6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u552f\u6709\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5341\u8db3\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u89c9\u5f97\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u82e5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u72b9\u72b9\u8c6b\u8c6b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eba\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u4ea7\u751f\u6000\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u662f\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u3002\u82e5\u9884\u6d4b\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u58f0\u540d\u8fdc\u626c\uff1b\u82e5\u9884\u6d4b\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u5c06\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6de1\u5fd8\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u901a\u5e38\u65e0\u9700\u62c5\u8d23\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u5c31\u50cf\u4e70\u5f69\u7968\u4e00\u6837\uff1a\u4e2d\u5956\u4e86\u5927\u5bcc\uff0c\u6ca1\u4e2d\u5956\u635f\u5931\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5176\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u88ab\u4ed6\u4eba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u7406\u7531\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u672c\u8eab\u6ca1\u6709\u9519\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c<strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u80fd\u591f\u627e\u5230\u5145\u5206\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5408\u7406\u5316<\/strong><strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u66f4\u80dc\u4eba\u4e00\u7b79\u3002<\/strong>\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fa9\u89e3\u8bf4\u201c\u6211\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\u7387\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ecd\u7136\u6301\u7eed\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u4e13\u5bb6\u603b\u662f\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYl5el5ia31O2rxQE7OkWfRG6JxTUXCm4vlYxHe55kfaEgAdNypb8C7iag\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=14\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u524d\u6587\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u63d0\u7279\u7f57\u79d1\uff08Philip TetLock\uff09\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u523a\u732c\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u72d0\u72f8\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u533a\u5206\u3002\u523a\u732c\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u56fa\u5b88\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u575a\u4fe1\u6b64\u89c2\u70b9\u5df2\u628a\u63e1\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u81ea\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e86\u5982\u6307\u638c\uff0c\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6beb\u4e0d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u7b03\u5b9a\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u76f8\u8f83\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u72d0\u72f8\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u66f4\u4e3a\u5ba1\u614e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6df1\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u7eb7\u7e41\u590d\u6742\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u81ea\u8eab\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6d1e\u6089\u5168\u90e8\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9c81\u83bd\u4e4b\u4e3e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8f7b\u6613\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u8981\u505a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6781\u4e3a\u614e\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u63d0\u7279\u7f57\u79d1\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8f83\u9760\u8c31\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u662f\u72d0\u72f8\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u523a\u732c\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002\u523a\u732c\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u6240\u72af\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c<strong>\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u6b63\u662f\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u8bb2\u7684\u201c\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u81ea\u8d1f\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u6240\u77e5\u751a\u5c11\uff0c\u5374\u4f6f\u88c5\u77e5\u6653\u751a\u591a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e3a\u77e5\u6653\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5927\u80c6\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8001\u5b50\u8b66\u544a\u7684\uff1a\u4e0d\u77e5\u8005\uff0c\u75c5\u4e5f\uff01\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=Mzk0ODEzNTE5MA==&amp;mid=2247513508&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=5a9e1fc1642ad13b36d88b187a6c06a6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u5f20\u7ef4\u8fce\uff1a\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u81ea\u8d1f<\/strong><\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e13\u5bb6\u52a1\u5fc5\u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u5351\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u6781\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u65e0\u8bba\u62e5\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u662f\u65e0\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u514b\u52b3\u65af\uff08David Gross)\u66fe\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u662f\u65e0\u77e5\u3002\u201d\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8c1a\u8bed\u8bf4\uff1a<strong>\u90a3\u4e9b\u58f0\u79f0\u80fd\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u5728\u6492\u8c0e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u540e\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsY2pkSFn10doF7kDoFaHIrglHXpJjLNPpXNmuml6MTAoVIRbhH2DtEOw\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=15\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9700\u7740\u91cd\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u9884\u6d4b\u88ab\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u4f4f\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/strong>\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5982\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u707e\u96be\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e9\u57282000\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u8bae\u653e\u5f00\u4e8c\u80ce\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u4eba\u58eb\u3002\u4e3b\u6d41\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u653e\u5f00\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u8fc5\u901f\u6062\u590d\u5230\u96be\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u653e\u5f00\u4e8c\u80ce\u653f\u7b56\u665a\u5230\u5341\u4f59\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\uff1f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u3002<strong>\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u505a\u7684\u662f\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u8bb2\u7684\u201c\u8303\u5f0f\u9884\u6d4b\u201d(pattern prediction)\u3002\u8303\u5f0f\u9884\u6d4b\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5bf9\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7c73\u8d5b\u65af\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u65e9\u5c31\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u82e5\u641e\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u666e\u904d\u8d2b\u7a77\u548c\u77ed\u7f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u54ea\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u5b9e\u884c\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u4e00\u5929\u74e6\u89e3\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56db\u5341\u4f59\u5e74\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u90bb\u56fd\u671d\u9c9c\u4f9d\u65e7\u5b9e\u884c\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u5176\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYibd2aciaQWzyuib4G6R4WbEmBREbbxP5Kz1UA2lIiaFqZC6YZO3O2DFGMQ\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=16\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e09\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u5411\u540c\u5b66\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u51e0\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8ff7\u4fe1\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002<\/strong>\u8d8a\u662f\u4fe1\u8a93\u65e6\u65e6\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u5f80\u5f80\u8d8a\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u8d8a\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u4fe1\u4efb\u3002\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u6cf0\u7279\u6d1b\u514b\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u8c37\u6b4c\u70b9\u51fb\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf284\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u8d8a\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u521b\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u77e5\u540d\u6559\u6388\u514b\u83b1\u987f\u00b7\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u5766\u68ee\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u6211\u770b\u5230\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u89c4\u6a21\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70b9\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u5f88\u65e9\u4ee5\u524d\u4fbf\u6000\u63e3\u7740\u98de\u5929\u68a6\u60f3\uff0c\u4f46\u76f4\u81f319\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u671f\u624d\u5177\u5907\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u30021899\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5177\u6743\u5a01\u6027\u7684\u79d1\u666e\u6742\u5fd7\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u300b\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7a7a\u6c14\u91cd\u7684\u98de\u884c\u5668\u6216\u8005\u5c06\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5371\u9669\u7684\u3001\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5a31\u4e50\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u5947\u5999\u7684\u73a9\u5177\uff1b\u98de\u673a\u5c06\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6709\u5546\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u7528\u9014\u7684\u673a\u5668\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u4e8e1903\u5e74\u6210\u529f\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u98de\u673a\u3002\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=Mzk0ODEzNTE5MA==&amp;mid=2247485023&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=5204e7dd6f7f20202032bcf0347d2328&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u5f20\u7ef4\u8fce\uff1a\u98de\u8247\u4e0e\u98de\u673a<\/strong><\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_jpg\/TwZhCJHkaJJjiaIciaRaQp8S0Cic0DobicsYE8uJzlEibAl7iaGAtgfJmylt8nzbZk22zckYc59v0C8LXY6qYm4c4ibMw\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=17\" 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